Monday 4 November 2013

Free Agent Frenzy - Profiling the Market for Non-Arencibias

Nearly a year ago, the Blue Jays saw Jonathan Paul Arencibia as their backstop for the considerable future.

Arencibia was the reason John Buck signed elsewhere following his all-star 2010 compaign. Arencibia was the reason Travis d'Arnaud was expendable, available for trade in Toronto's search for a top line starting pitcher. 

But much can change in one season, and so the Blue Jays dive into the 2013-14 offseason in hopes of an upgrade at catcher. 

Let's first take a look at what they have:

J.P. Arencibia, 6'0", 200 lb., Miami, FL

2013 Statistics:

.194/.227/.365
21 HR, 55 RBI

Advanced (per FanGraphs):

-0.6 WAR
-25.2 Off
10.3 Def 


Josh Thole, 6'0", 215 lb., Breese, IL
2013 Statistics:

.175/.256/.242
1 HR, 8 RBI

Advanced (per FanGraphs):

-0.5 WAR
-10.8 Off
2.1 Def


Both major league catchers managed to contribute defensively - yet their lack of offence decreased their overall impact to (statistically) less than a replacement level player. 

A.J. Jimenez is an intriguing option, having thrown out 43% of potential base stealers through his minor league career (compared to Arencibia's 29% rate in the minors or Josh Thole's 23% clip). His bat remains a question though. His OBP was .332, between time at Dunedin, New Hampshire, and Buffalo - certainly not bad, but not forcing a promotion to the majors. He doesn't hit for power either. Jimenez might be a future option behind the plate, but for now, he most likely stays at AAA.

Let's profile some external options on the Free Agent market:

Brian McCann, 6'3", 230 lb., Athens, GA
2013 Statistics (102 games):

.256/.336/.461
20 HR, 57 RBI

Advanced (per FanGraphs):

2.7 WAR
5.6 Off
7.7 Def

The best, yet priciest option on the market. A seven time all-star will test free agency for the first time, looking for a 5 to 6 year deal, worth roughly $100 million. The Blue Jays could certainly afford him, but he appears more likely to sign with a proven contender or a team with a bigger baseball market, such as Texas. 

Atlanta will undoubtedly give him a qualifying offer as well, so a first round compensatory pick would be lost. 


Carlos Ruiz, 5'10", 205 lb., David Chiriqui Panama
2013 Statistics (92 games):

.268/.320/.368
5 HR, 37 RBI

Advanced (per FanGraphs):

1.4 WAR
-3.4 Off
6.2 Def

Ruiz is a wily vet - but at age 34, coming off a suspension for use of a banned substance, is he worth the risk? He's proven that he can get on base and handle a pitching staff, but there's definitely an element of uncertainty. 

An option, but one the Blue Jays probably won't pursue.


Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 6'4", 235 lb., West Palm Beach, FL
2013 Statistics (121 games):

.273/.338/.466
14 HR, 65 RBI

Advanced (per FanGraphs:)

3.6 WAR
10.1 Off
7.3 Def

Saltalamacchia has shown glimpses of why he was one of the top catching prospects a mere five years ago. A switch-hitter with power and gets on base, a solid defender, and the best name in the game. 

I see a fit, but he could be more pricey that one might expect. Saltalamacchia probably will not get a qualifying offer from the Red Sox. We'll see if that plays for Toronto's interest.


A.J. Pierzynski, 6'3", 235 lb., Bridgehampton, NY
2013 Statistics (134 games):

.272/.297/.425
17 HR, 70 RBI

Advanced (per FanGraphs:)

1.6 WAR
-9.1 Off
6.6 Def

A power hitting catcher who doesn't get on base... mmm, well he's still better than Arencibia. Age is a factor.

Doubtful the Blue Jays overpay for the 36 year old.


Henry Blan... never mind.
...


I said never mind...


...


Just forget it...

Look out for part 2, concerning trading options for catcher











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