Free Agent Frenzy - Profiling the Market for Non-Arencibias

Nearly a year ago, the Blue Jays saw Jonathan Paul Arencibia as their backstop for the considerable future.

Arencibia was the reason John Buck signed elsewhere following his all-star 2010 compaign. Arencibia was the reason Travis d'Arnaud was expendable, available for trade in Toronto's search for a top line starting pitcher. 

But much can change in one season, and so the Blue Jays dive into the 2013-14 offseason in hopes of an upgrade at catcher. 

Let's first take a look at what they have:

J.P. Arencibia, 6'0", 200 lb., Miami, FL

2013 Statistics:

.194/.227/.365

21 HR, 55 RBI

Advanced (per FanGraphs):

-0.6 WAR

-25.2 Off

10.3 Def 

Josh Thole, 6'0", 215 lb., Breese, IL

2013 Statistics:

.175/.256/.242

1 HR, 8 RBI

Advanced (per FanGraphs):

-0.5 WAR

-10.8 Off

2.1 Def

Both major league catchers managed to contribute defensively - yet their lack of offence decreased their overall impact to (statistically) less than a replacement level player. 

A.J. Jimenez is an intriguing option, having thrown out 43% of potential base stealers through his minor league career (compared to Arencibia's 29% rate in the minors or Josh Thole's 23% clip). His bat remains a question though. His OBP was .332, between time at Dunedin, New Hampshire, and Buffalo - certainly not bad, but not forcing a promotion to the majors. He doesn't hit for power either. Jimenez might be a future option behind the plate, but for now, he most likely stays at AAA.

Let's profile some external options on the Free Agent market:

Brian McCann, 6'3", 230 lb., Athens, GA

2013 Statistics (102 games):

.256/.336/.461

20 HR, 57 RBI

Advanced (per FanGraphs):

2.7 WAR

5.6 Off

7.7 Def

The best, yet priciest option on the market. A seven time all-star will test free agency for the first time, looking for a 5 to 6 year deal, worth roughly $100 million. The Blue Jays could certainly afford him, but he appears more likely to sign with a proven contender or a team with a bigger baseball market, such as Texas. 

Atlanta will undoubtedly give him a qualifying offer as well, so a first round compensatory pick would be lost. 

Carlos Ruiz, 5'10", 205 lb., David Chiriqui,  Panama

2013 Statistics (92 games):

.268/.320/.368

5 HR, 37 RBI

Advanced (per FanGraphs):

1.4 WAR

-3.4 Off

6.2 Def

Ruiz is a wily vet - but at age 34, coming off a suspension for use of a banned substance, is he worth the risk? He's proven that he can get on base and handle a pitching staff, but there's definitely an element of uncertainty. 

An option, but one the Blue Jays probably won't pursue.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 6'4", 235 lb., West Palm Beach, FL

2013 Statistics (121 games):

.273/.338/.466

14 HR, 65 RBI

Advanced (per FanGraphs:)

3.6 WAR

10.1 Off

7.3 Def

Saltalamacchia has shown glimpses of why he was one of the top catching prospects a mere five years ago. A switch-hitter with power and gets on base, a solid defender, and the best name in the game. 

I see a fit, but he could be more pricey that one might expect. Saltalamacchia probably will not get a qualifying offer from the Red Sox. We'll see if that plays for Toronto's interest.

A.J. Pierzynski, 6'3", 235 lb., Bridgehampton, NY

2013 Statistics (134 games):

.272/.297/.425

17 HR, 70 RBI

Advanced (per FanGraphs:)

1.6 WAR

-9.1 Off

6.6 Def

A power hitting catcher who doesn't get on base... mmm, well he's still better than Arencibia. Age is a factor.

Doubtful the Blue Jays overpay for the 36 year old.

Henry Blan... never mind.

...

I said never mind...

...

Just forget it...

Look out for part 2, concerning trading options for catcher

The Mainstream Blue Jays Fan (Extended)

The only thing worse than an obsessively hipster sports fan is an obsessively mainstream sports fan. 

I should clarify - being a mainstream sports fan isn't wearing Aeropostale while watching the game. The same applies for hipster sports fans - it's not a combination of sports with some bearded guy singing about his vegan canoe. This differs from everyday mainstreamity and hipsterness (they're words if I want them to be).

Rather it's the manner in which one cheers for their team. I've spotted some trends over the years which I've classified as mainstream sports mannerisms - particularly those which apply to our hometown Blue Jays. I've compiled a list of three quick steps to determine if you are a Mainstream Blue Jays fan. Let's investigate:

1. The Bandwagon Effect: This is fundamental to the vicious cycle of Toronto sports, and seasonally festive to each team not named the Leafs. Considering the cliches proclaimed during each team's preseason - "we're gonna give it our all", "we think we have a shot" - the level of hopeless optimism mires Toronto in a thick layer of bandwagon muck. Mainstream Jays fans are the ones who join the bandwagon mid-March but are off by late-April. Those who last the whole year? Hipster Jays fans.
2. Jose Bautista fan, eh?: Well then, that's a mainstream Jays fan.  Most don't realize that he is no longer the best player on the team, but that's okay. Keep on sporting that Jose Bautista jersey with your generic Old Navy jeans and flat brimmed cap. Say, is that an iPhone 5?
3. Hold the 'solution' to the team: Be vague too. Question a "winning mentality" or a "lack of leadership" and be sure to blame the manager for reasons you don't know of. Simply put, talk jack shit but pretend you know what's going on. Speculation is important for the quintessential Blue Jays fan.

If this isn't you, congratulations. You've managed to swim away from the fishing net of mainstream baseball fandom. 

If this is you, there's hope… 

Just remember - we all seek a certain sense of authenticity as fans.  By avoiding the trap of being a mainstream Blue Jays fan, you can discover your sense of identity as a baseball fan. Quickly! Define yourself before it's too late...

Ten Reasons To Love Colby Rasmus

1. His possum stew consumption/9 IP is outstanding




2. We're talking dingers for dough. He hits a dinger, you get cash. Wow, now that's a double play.

3. He's from the deep south - yet he lives in inner Toronto. It's kinda like "Coming To America" starring Eddie Murphy.

4. He runs down fly balls like monster trucks run down dirt.

5. Speaking of #4, monster trucks.

6. Speaking of #5, chili dawgs

7. Speaking of #4 and #5,  'MURICA

8. He's a family man. Who doesn't love that?

9. He hits dingers... for dough... again. Oh, and possum stew too.

10. Colby is kinda good at the baseball thing now - which is a pleasant surprise.

Six Quick Tips - How To Be A Mainstream Blue Jays Fan

1. Join the bandwagon in March, threaten to leave the bandwagon in Early April

Possibly the most important of all. Announce to the world that you'll cheer for a team off to a hot start... like the 2009 Toronto Blue Jays (REMEMBER THAT? FIRST PLACE ON MAY 23RD).

2. Purchase a Jose Bautista jersey, then question Jose Bautista

Well aren't you special?

3. Be vague when offering advice to improve the ballclub.

Be sure to include words such as "leadership" and"mentality" - somewhat connected to #2, questioning Jose Bautista.

4. Blame Everything on Gibby

I'm sorry you're having intimacy issues #BlameGibby

5. Love Kawasaki

Just because he's a warm hearted immigrant who can't speak English

6. Compare the Blue Jays to teams who have experienced success within the past 18 months

Oh, yea, because the Baltimore Orioles were SO GOOD for the past twenty years

Luck, Pitching, and Losing Ways

Before the season began, we would have said that in order for the Blue Jays to not contend, basically everything would need to go wrong for these hyped up, world series favourites.

So what has happened? Well, essentially... EVERYTHING HAS GONE WRONG, besides the offensive part of the game, which continues, year after year, to be their forte.

The Blue Jays were said to have had a strong, starting rotation in the midst of what was such a hectic offesason - and they truly did.

Their rotation consisted of:
-A Cy Young Award Winner
-A pitcher who seemed to have put it all together
-The most consistent pitcher in baseball
-A recent ERA champ
-One of the best fifth starters in baseball

The result?

-Knuckle ain't canuknling
-Injured
-Well... still incredibly consistent (three cheers for Buehrle, eh?)
-Injured/Worst thing sliced bread
-Injured

Not only are they all (with the exception of Mark Buehrle) having horrible/injury plagued seasons, but they haven't had much luck on their side. Josh Johnson, coming into a free agent year, has posted an ERA of 6.20 but a FIP of 4.62, lower than that of RA Dickey.

In fact, outside of RA Dickey (4.49 ERA, 4.78 FIP), the whole rotation has a lower FIP than ERA.

What exactly does that say about our defence?

Though pitching has been horrible - the worst in baseball, in fact - the Blue Jays are NOT playing fundamentally sound baseball. Defence has consistently let the pitching down this year, excluding the 11 game run.

Without Munenori Kawasaki (1.7 Fld), Jose Bautista (6.2 Fld), and Colby Rasmus (9.0 Fld), every other Blue Jays regular has a negative Fld, Fielding Runs Above Average based on UZR - the worst being Maicer Izturis with a whopping -17.3 Fld.

Combine that with horrible pitching and the Blue Jays find themselves in the cellar of the uber-competetive AL East.

On the other hand, a team such as the Orioles, who haven't received great pitching, find themselves right in the thick of it. They may have great offence, but so do the Blue Jays. What's the key? You tell me:

The same can be said about the Tampa Bay Rays (though of course, they also rely heavily on their starting pitching):

The Blue Jays can't afford to have such horrible defense - with Melky Cabrera "patrolling" left field, Maicer Izturis "manning" the 2-bag, or JP Arencibia "handling the duties" behind the plate. 

Your pitching looks a lot better with defence. Your offence looks a lot better with pitching.

It's time for the Blue Jays to step it up in essentially every aspect of the game besides the offensive. 

Comments? Suggestions? Leave a comment below. But be nice - we don't need any b*tching to Beeston here...

Should the Jays Trade Jose?

Don't hurt me. I beg of you.

The proposition seems preposterous. It may very well be preposterous; why move one of the best outfielders in the game on a bargain contract? Here's my response... why not?

Because he's locked up for nickels and dimes, that's all the more reason to trade Jose Bautista. Look at it from a contending team's perspective - who wouldn't want one of the game's biggest power threats with great instincts and a cannon of an arm in the outfield for only $14 million/year until 2015, with an option for 2016.

The Jays could get a huge haul for Joey Bats. Like... a HUGE haul... and as great a player as he is, do the Jays really need him?

Outfielder Kevin Pillar is banging on the door, posting a ridiculous .349 BA at AAA, while Anthony Gose and Moises Sierra still can't be counted out.

Further, offense isn't the problem. The Blue Jays are 8th in the Majors in runs scored - ahead of the A's, Braves, Reds, Rangers, Yankees, and Dodgers.

Would the Blue Jays offense take that huge a hit without Jose Bautista?

Take a look at MY hypothetical lineup:

1. RF Kevin Pillar
2. LF Melky Cabrera
3. SS Jose Reyes
4. 1B Edwin Encarnacion
5. DH Adam Lind
6. CF Colby Rasmus
7. 2B Maicer Izturis
8. C  JP Arencibia
9. 3B Brett Lawrie

Not too shabby.

It may be bold to assume that Kevin Pillar could so soon handle the vigor of being an everyday lead off man. But if that assumption is even close to reality, the Jays offense would be fine. That lineup is still very capable.

What the Blue Jays really need is starting pitching.

The Jays should know first hand that offense isn't needed if you pitch well. They've been slaughtered by the Rays over the course of the past six years.

So why not move Jose Bautista? Just imagine what you could get.

Jose Bautista is great. Young controllable talent is also great though.

Should Jose be moved? Leave a comment...

The Legend of The Red Bull

Some say he never left.
Some say he flew away with the wings that the Red Bull gave him.

But most say he's still here... 'cause he is. Should he be though?

Brett Lawrie is a spectacular third baseman. Defensively at least. Not as spectacular as... say a Manny Machado or dare I say it, Tabler, an Evan Longoria?

I digress. 

Brett Lawrie is still a very solid defensive infielder - and much more of a contributor than Munenori Kawasaki. Yet one must wonder if the Blue Jays are ruining him.

We've seen other Jays prospects disappear into the land of mediocrity following an impressionable debut *cough cough* Mr. Snider *cough cough*

This raises the question - should Brett Lawrie be sent down? He, like Travis Snider, had an incredible start to their careers. He, like Travis Snider, was maybe rushed. MAYBE. He, like Travis Snider, was incredibly young when he was called up.

Sure, other youngsters have been called up at young ages. Manny Machado, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, etc.

But if the player is struggling after a year or two, is it time to send them back down?

Despite the D, Lawrie has been... well... less than impressive this year, struggling to make solid contact at the plate, posting an average barely eclipsing the Mendoza Line. From what I see through my (what must be) less than professional analysis, Lawrie's swing needs work. Not level. Choppy. Overexcited. Whatever you want to call it.

It's the elephant in the room.

The next few weeks should be the deciding factor. Continuous struggles and he should be sent down.

What's your call? Leave a comment...